The Dutch power market is transforming rapidly: A coal exit by 2030, an ambitious hydrogen strategy, a separate carbon price floor for electricity generation, a ruling from the highest court obliging the government to further increase efforts to meet emission reduction targets, subsidy free tenders for the construction of offshore wind parks and a new subsidy scheme that is unique in its focus on CO2 abatement, rather than clean electricity generation.
Our Dutch Power Market Forecast serves as a comprehensive stock-taking document, which outlines and analyses market prospects as they currently stand, and navigates you through these changes. Using our in-house dynamic dispatch model AER-ES EU, we forecast electricity prices, spark spreads, dark spreads, future generation mixes, capacity growth, capacity prices, utilisation and carbon emissions.
Next to our central (P50) outlook, Dutch Power Market Forecast features a High Scenario and a Low Scenario since H1 2020. These are designed to reflect short-term volatility and long-term structural risks compared to our central outlook. Compared to the central scenario, three parameters are modified: gas prices, carbon prices and demand.
Aurora’s Dutch Power Market Forecast has been designed to help market participants navigate the energy transition by providing deep market insights and intelligence to address key questions and opportunities, such as:
- What are potential pathways to close one of Europe’s most modern coal fleets, especially in light of the Urgenda ruling on carbon emissions reductions?
- How is the Netherlands impacted by decisions of its neighbouring countries i.e. coal and nuclear exit?
- What business models arise around electric vehicles, and will they support or risk security of supply?
- How and when will subsidy-free renewables enter the markets outside the SDE++ subsidy framework? What are the system implications?
Aurora’s Dutch Power Market Service will give you the intelligence you need to understand and make crucial decisions, as well as to obtain financing for your investment projects. Our forecasts are industry standard, and have been the basis for many transactions.
Unlike other analytics providers, our forecasts and analyses use in-house modelling and expertise on global commodities, European gas markets, neighbouring power and balancing markets, to provide results that accurately reflect market realities.
The service provides regular long-term power market forecasts, access to our market data analytics platform EOS, and close interaction with our team through workshops and interactive subscriber roundtables in Amsterdam.
For more information about our services, complete the form at the bottom of the page. You can also download our flyer about the Dutch Power Market Service here: