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Conventional generation

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Aurora has deep expertise in modelling and forecasting conventional generation technologies in the UK, European and global markets.

By combining analytical forecasts on long-term prices, generation mix and spreads with deep strategic expertise on key trends in conventional generation, our clients enjoy the best available insights and strategies to help them cope with a rapidly changing energy market.

Realistic conventional generation dispatch behaviour

In the UK and Europe, we project realistic conventional generation dispatch behaviour that reflects merit order, ramping costs and rate restrictions. In addition, we model a fully specified capacity market with endogenous entry, exit and mothballing of generation capacity. Endogenous demand adapting to both economic growth and electricity prices is then overlaid to offer internally consistent and accurate medium to long-term power market projections.

Mid-term power market forecasts

As part of Aurora’s continuing search to remain at the leading-edge of power market modelling, we also offer mid-term power market forecasts. These provide GB power price forecast over short-term horizon – 1 month up to three years ahead. They use half hourly granularity and aggregation to tradable duration, and include the wholesale power price as well as spark and dark spreads.

This mid-term modelling combines Aurora’s fundamental power dispatch modelling capabilities with stochastic modelling and econometric analysis to deliver invaluable insights to clients and subscribers.

Bespoke analytics

Aurora’s market-leading modelling is complemented by our consulting team who can conduct bespoke analytics for conventional generation players. We have conducted a range consulting projects from optimisation of maintenance schedules based on granular half-hourly forecasts; to capacity market forecasts and bidding projections; to ancillary service revenue projections and strategies.

Quarterly UK and European power market forecasts

The core of our conventional generation analysis is built into our various UK and European quarterly power market forecasts.

These provide long-term forecasts of price, capacity, production and analysis of relevant energy policy changes that impact the operation of conventional generation assets. We augment this analysis with group meetings, which provide a forum for senior conventional generation industry figures to discuss key issues facing the markets and challenge Aurora’s analysis.

In addition, we also publish thematic reports to offer deeper analysis on key issues facing conventional generation players – for example, likely outcomes in future capacity market auctions, uncertainty around demand forecasts, or the impact of batteries on future generation mix.

Online analytics platform

Key parts of Aurora’s conventional generation data set are provided through our online platform, EOS. EOS includes historical and real-time power market data for European countries such as asset and portfolio performance, key system characteristics, and commodity data. It provides extensive databases to be explored, downloaded, and viewed via custom dashboards and charting tools.

Find out how our data and insights will allow you to make better investment, strategic, operational and trading decisions.

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