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Distributed and flexible energy

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As energy markets become increasingly complex, standard analytic solutions can no longer accurately model technologies that have very different operational characteristics to conventional generation. Nor can they begin to accurately model balancing requirements and costs, or provide insight into increasingly critical ancillary markets.

Aurora has built a suite of sophisticated and robust models that capture the full complexity inherent in flexible and distributed generation to provide energy players with critical insights into the energy systems of the future.

Long-term forecasts

We forecast long-term prices across multiple energy markets (including capacity, balancing and ancillary markets for all technology types), generation mix and spreads to 2040 for flexible and distributed players.

In addition, we have developed proprietary modelling techniques to project the unique characteristics of emerging generation and storage technologies. For example, Aurora has developed proprietary methodologies for modelling the role and impact of batteries in energy systems, including:

  • Forecast battery capacity penetration levels and subsequent levels of investment required
  • Forecast erosion of battery spreads from efficiency losses, depreciation, charge/ discharge delay, etc
  • Project realistic value capture across all available revenue streams via realistic battery business models each allowing different revenue streams to be stacked (e.g., embedded batteries, paired with renewables or dispatchable plants, ancillary and network service providers, etc)
  • Analysis of impact of battery performance on available value capture (e.g., efficiency, life cycles, C-rating)
  • Total system costs across wholesale, capacity, balancing and ancillary markets

Distributed and flexible energy subscription service

As part of Aurora’s continuing search to push the frontiers of power market modelling, we have created a subscription product that focuses exclusively on flexible and distributed generation.

This subscription provides detailed investment case analysis for storage, DSR and peakers. It also includes granular data and forecasts for energy, capacity, balancing, embedded benefits, and ancillary services – ideal for supporting internal analysis and investment case modelling.

We augment this analysis with group meetings, which provide a forum for senior flexible and distributed generation industry figures to discuss key emerging trends and to discuss Aurora’s analysis.

In addition, we also publish thematic reports to offer deeper analysis on key issues facing flexible and distributed generation players – for example, current bottlenecks to increased DSR penetration, the impact of embedded benefits reform, and threats to battery investment cases.

Bespoke analytics

Aurora’s market-leading modelling is complemented by our consulting team who can conduct bespoke analytics for flexible and distributed generation players.

We have conducted a range of consulting projects for conventional generation players: from battery, pumped hydro, DSR and peaker investment cases; to quantitative assessment of policy impacts on flexible generation revenue streams; to modelling future ancillary service revenue streams for a wide variety of market participants.

Online analytics platform

Key parts of Aurora’s flexible and distributed generation data set are provided through our online platform, EOS. It includes historical and real-time power market data for European countries such as asset and portfolio performance, key system characteristics, and commodity data. It provides extensive databases to be explored, downloaded, and viewed via custom dashboards and charting tools.

Find out how our data and insights will allow you to make a better investment, strategic, operational and trading decisions.

Rethinking energy