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Distributed and flexible energy

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As energy markets become increasingly complex, standard analytic solutions can no longer accurately model technologies that have very different operational characteristics to conventional generation. Nor can they begin to accurately model balancing requirements and costs, or provide insight into increasingly critical ancillary markets.

Aurora has built a suite of sophisticated and robust models that capture the full complexity inherent in flexible and distributed generation to provide energy players with critical insights into the energy systems of the future.

Long-term forecasts

We forecast long-term prices across multiple energy markets (including capacity, balancing and ancillary markets for all technology types), generation mix and spreads to 2040 for flexible and distributed players.

In addition, we have developed proprietary modelling techniques to project the unique characteristics of emerging generation and storage technologies. For example, Aurora has developed proprietary methodologies for modelling the role and impact of batteries in energy systems, including:

  • Forecast battery capacity penetration levels and subsequent levels of investment required
  • Forecast erosion of battery spreads from efficiency losses, depreciation, charge/ discharge delay, etc
  • Project realistic value capture across all available revenue streams via realistic battery business models each allowing different revenue streams to be stacked (e.g., embedded batteries, paired with renewables or dispatchable plants, ancillary and network service providers, etc)
  • Analysis of impact of battery performance on available value capture (e.g., efficiency, life cycles, C-rating)
  • Total system costs across wholesale, capacity, balancing and ancillary markets

Find out how our data and insights will allow you to make a better investment, strategic, operational and trading decisions.

Independent intelligence for the global energy transformation