As the electrification of transport gathers pace, it will have profound effects across the entire energy system – including direct impacts on power and oil markets, and indirect effects on other commodity markets.
Aurora has developed a suite of modelling tools to both predict electric vehicle uptake in key markets – based on developments in technology, economics and policy – and to assess the impacts of this on power and commodity markets.
Our analysis of EV uptake is integrated into our modelling of the global energy system. This allows us to develop market-driven EV scenarios based on commodity prices, as well as testing the impact of increasing electric vehicle penetration on global energy markets to 2040 on a regional basis. For example, over the last two years we have worked with a number of oil and gas majors to assess the impact of EV uptake on their global energy forecasts.
The growth in electric vehicles could substantially alter the scale and pattern of power demand in coming years. Our outlook for electric vehicles is integrated within our modelling of power markets in GB, Germany and other European countries. This allows us to provide high quality strategic advice on the impact of EV uptake on existing generators and new entrants. We assess the impact of EV uptake on prices, capacities and generation across multiple energy markets (including wholesale, capacity, balancing and ancillary markets) considering thermal, renewable, flexible and distributed generators, as well as storage.
We produce quarterly reports and monthly notes covering UK and European power markets. We augment this analysis with regular Group Meetings, which provide a forum for senior conventional generation industry figures to discuss key issues facing the markets and challenge Aurora’s analysis. Recent Group Meetings include a ‘deep-dive’ on the impact of electric vehicles on the UK and German power markets, including consideration of emerging business models.
Aurora’s market-leading modelling is complemented by our consulting team which conducts bespoke analysis on a range of topics including the impact of EVs on power and commodity markets. We have conducted a range of relevant consulting projects including reports on the global impact of EV uptake on commodity markets, and examining the impact of smart charging on individual power markets.