To help our clients understand the intricacies of the global gas and LNG markets, we have developed sophisticated modelling that captures and projects the major elements of global and European gas markets – supply, demand, price and infrastructure/ transport development.
By modelling the physical infrastructure of LNG and European pipeline, sources of supply, and demand centres, Aurora can create detailed forecasts of gas markets to 2040.
In addition, we also run proprietary scenarios to test the impact of events and market trends on the central forecast. For example, Aurora’s gas modelling suite accurately forecast the slump in global gas prices in 2014, as well as the extended low price period extending through 2015 and 2016.
Aurora invests in proprietary analytics, ensuring the best available data and assumptions to drive outcomes. For example, our European and global gas market models incorporate:
- 400+ European pipelines
- 400+ global LNG plants
- 250+ European storage facilities
- 300+ existing contracts
- Dynamic cost structure
To provide even greater insights, Aurora also undertakes more granular analysis to quantify the value of individual gas and LNG contracts and portfolios of contracts by assessing both intrinsic and extrinsic value. Using a combination of economic and financial models, this more sophisticated approach allows us to turn supply, demand and price projections into actionable insights for our gas and LNG clients.
Aurora has developed a detailed database of current and projected sources of gas and LNG supply. This allows for supply projections at a field, country, and regional level. In addition, Aurora also runs supply scenarios to capture the full range of factors that impact supplier investment decisions. For example, Aurora has augmented underlying general equilibrium modelling, with academically rigorous game-theory style option valuation of various Russian responses, to gas over-supply and market share.
Aurora forecasts regional and global demand at a high degree of granularity within the gas model portfolio. This approach captures sectoral gas demand by country and accounts for the substitution impact between different goods and sectors. For example, gas-for-power demand is modelled in a way that allows us to capture the complexity of intermittent generation, substitution impacts with other sources of power generation, capacity markets, spark spreads and other key characteristics of the power market, and their subsequent future impact on gas demand.
Based on our supply and demand analysis and modelling, Aurora can deliver regional gas and LNG price forecasts to 2040 based on market fundamentals and up-to-date analysis of regulatory and geo-political factors. We actively review all available data sources to track the impact of major policies, events, technologies and trends that impact gas prices and update our projections within our models and forecasts on a quarterly basis.
Find out how these data and insights will allow you to make better investment, strategic, operational and trading decisions.