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Aurora is at the forefront in modelling and forecasting renewable technologies in the UK, European and global markets.

Our analytical forecasting is combined with deep industry experience and clear strategic thinking to deliver exceptional outcomes for our clients in the renewables industry.

To model renewables accurately, Aurora incorporates the best available projections of government policy (for example, carbon volume, RES and CHP support regimes) and forecasts onshore and offshore wind, solar, hydro and biomass on a project-by-project basis in UK and European markets.

By using synthetic wind and solar profiles that match historical mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis, we can accurately model renewable revenue streams from government support mechanisms and relevant energy markets. Renewables system impacts are also captured to ensure internal consistency.

Bespoke analytics

Aurora’s modelling and analytics is supported by our consulting team who can conduct targeted analytics for renewables players.

We work with renewables players on a variety of topics: from analysing the impact and potential of batteries; to forecasting the system cost of intermittency in the UK and Europe; to conducting due diligences for renewable investors in solar, wind, and hydro.

Analytics for offshore wind park valuations

Aurora is perfectly positioned to support brownfield, greenfield as well as pre-auction valuations.

We consult developers and investors of offshore wind parks on a variety of topics: We evaluate regulations and future regulatory risk in different subsidy and tendering regimes. We forecast expected revenues by incorporating wind yield, subsidies, capture prices (post-subsidy) and curtailment. On the other hand, we have a sound knowledge of expected ongoing costs from O&M and balancing.

UK and European quarterly power market forecasts

The core of our renewables analysis is shared via our various UK and European quarterly power market forecasts.

These provide long-term forecasts of price, capacity, production and analysis of relevant energy policy changes that impact the operation of renewable assets. We augment this analysis with group meetings that provide a forum for senior renewables industry figures to reflect on the most pressing challenges and opportunities and review Aurora’s analysis. In addition, we also publish thematic reports to offer deeper analysis targeted for renewables players – for example, the relative system costs of nuclear and renewables in the UK system to 2080; or the impact of carbon pricing on renewables generation mix.

Online analytics platform

Key parts of Aurora’s renewables data set are provided through our online platform, EOS.

This includes historical and real-time power market data for European countries such as asset and portfolio performance, key system characteristics, and commodity data. It provides extensive databases to be explored, downloaded, and viewed via custom dashboards and charting tools.

Find out how our data and insights will allow you to make better investment, strategic, and operational decisions.

Sophisticated economic modelling with deep knowledge of policy and practice of energy markets