This report – read by many of the world’s major energy companies – compiles Aurora’s long-term forecasts for oil, gas, coal and carbon markets, deploying our state-of-the-art in-house global general equilibrium model.
Our global energy markets forecast
- Presents an internally consistent, long-term view on fuel prices, production, and consumption by major countries and regions
- Identifies key areas of long-term uncertainty in global energy market fundamentals
- Provides central, high, low, and P10/P90 price sensitivity analyses, based on historical variation in key sources of uncertainty
Global general equilibrium model
- General equilibrium structure enforces market clearance across all markets, ensuring internal consistency of results
- Covers all economic activity in the world economy, aggregated into 12 collectively exhaustive categories of goods, and 23 countries/regions
- Takes into account interactions between different markets, and substitution mechanisms between coal, oil, gas, and all other goods
Dynamic resource extraction module
- Provides realistic fuel extraction modelling through dynamic forward-looking profit maximisation
- Accounts for all existing and estimated oil, gas, and coal resources in the world, split into 11 different subcategories of fuels – five for oil, four for gas, and two for coal
- Differentiates between extraction with existing capacity and exploiting additional resources. The former depends on current fuel price and marginal extraction cost, while the latter involves investment in extraction capacity if the project is found viable given the levelised cost of extraction and expected future fuel prices
Using a blend of market intelligence and insight, our forecasts give you the foresight, independence and transparency you need to make informed critical commercial decisions.
We offer our global energy markets forecast as a stand-alone product or as an integral component of our comprehensive power market services.
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