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Iberian Power Market Service

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Power market intelligence to navigate the transformation of the energy system

After almost a decade of relative inactivity in Iberia, the 2020s will replicate the decade of the 2000s, when renewables boomed.

The history by now is well known, and the 2000s ended badly for investors, but there are powerful reasons to think that this time may be different:

  • First, in the case of solar especially, thanks to declining costs, low current penetration levels, and high load factors, market forces will play the major role in Iberian renewables development. Slow deployment over the past decade, leaves some catching up to do.
  • Second, models for sharing risk are emerging in Iberia, with interest from utility and corporate PPA providers from across Europe, as well as merchant investors who are willing to invest on the basis of expected future power prices.

Despite this rosy outlook, mitigation of key risks remains critical and regulatory uncertainties also remain. Chief among these uncertainties are the 7% generation tax (IVPEE), and Government’s approach to security of supply.

Our service will provide you with the intelligence you need to understand the key market risks and make informed strategic decisions. The service includes granular forecasts of investment, prices (base, peak, RES capture, spark, and dark) and volumes across electricity and potential capacity markets. Our service also provides a detailed policy review and outlook, in-depth analysis and quantification of the industry’s changing issues, and close interaction with the Aurora team through interactive client forums, bilateral workshops, and ongoing analyst support. We provide intelligence to address key questions around this major transformation:

  • How much renewables capacity can the market digest?
  • Can the thermal fleet earn sufficient return to stay in the market?
  • How will security of supply be assured? Capacity market, administrative payment, enforced non-closure of plants?
  • Will the Spanish NECP be enacted in full? Where are the risks and opportunities?
  • Will the removal of Spain’s “sun tax” lead to a boom in rooftop renewables?
  • How credible are Government’s phase-out policies for coal and nuclear?

Our clients include: large utilities, power generators, renewables developers and investors, equipment suppliers, grid operators, policy makers and financial institutions. These market participants typically use our Power Market Service to:

  • Inform long-term investment decisions in generation and infrastructure assets across a wide range of technologies including batteries, wind, solar, speakers, CCGT, OCGT, hydro, energy from waste
  • Obtain financing on the basis of proven and widely accepted price forecasts
  • Anticipate changes in policy, technology, and commodity markets and assess their effects
  • Understand the fundamental changes in the market and the resulting implications for their business models
  • Keep up to date with medium-term and long-term forecasts for power, coal, oil, gas, and carbon
  • Validate internal forecasts and value existing portfolios as part of their business cycle

Using a combination of market intelligence and insight, our forecasts, regarded as an industry standard by market participants, will give you the understanding and transparency you need to make informed commercial decisions.

For more information about our services, please request further information below. You can also download our flyer about the Iberian Power Market Service.

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