SHARE
+44 (0) 1865 952700 | contact@auroraer.com
Press enquiries
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Insight

Home/2050 Outlook: Electrification of the Polish Transportation and Heating Sectors

2050 Outlook: Electrification of the Polish Transportation and Heating Sectors

We are pleased to present our latest strategic insight report,  sharing our insights on the impact the electrification of the Polish transportation and heating sectors will have on the power market, as well as introducing the expansion of our Polish forecast to 2050.

Key messages that emerge from the analysis:

  • We expect Polish power demand to grow to ~250 TWh by 2050, driven by GDP growth and strong electrification of heating and transport.
  • The electrification of the transport sector has considerable flexibility potential that can drastically reduce charging costs to individual drivers and costs of the overall system. Incentivising this will be key and has further benefits (e.g. grids).
  • The electrification of heating will create a need for several gigawatts of additional dispatchable capacity without providing much flexibility itself.
  • Without further intervention, we expect some coal to remain in the system until 2050. However, most is replaced by low and zero carbon options.
  • There is significant competition in the space for short-term flexibility; smart charging of EVs can make load shifting batteries unviable.

This is subscriber-only content. To enquire about subscribing to our Polish Power Market service, please get in touch.

View Report

Our subscription services

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.

Interested? Please sign up to receive our complimentary monthly summary reports via email. Simply tick which reports you would like to receive. Please indicate your consent in the box provided and view our privacy policy.

If you would like further information on a particular subscription service or report please enter further information in the box provided.

 

 

  • Please find our privacy policy here

  • Aurora's latest Polish Power Market Forecast presents a comprehensive view on the state of the Polish power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance until 2040. 

    Read More
  • Aurora's new report explores four plausible scenarios for the impact of COVID-19 on European power markets – at one extreme considering a moderate scenario where lockdowns are eased in Q2-2020, through to a worst-case scenario characterised by a European and global depression.

    Read More
  • The Polish capacity market price is higher than expected by the majority of experts, who believed that the situation in Poland would repeat what happened in Great Britain, where the price last year amounted to 22.5 pounds, i.e. about 115 PLN. Why did this happen? In July 2018 Hanns Koenig and Filip Piasecki from Aurora Energy Research managed to more or less accurately predict the price (they forecasted PLN 249) and highlighted three main reasons. Firstly, much higher investment needs of Polish coal-fired power plants, which have to adapt to the stringent emissions standards. Secondly, there is little competition, with only 15% excess demand. In addition, Poland has much lower embedded/distributed benefits, which contributed to lower bids in the British market.

    Read More