We are pleased to present our latest strategic insight report, sharing our insights on the impact the electrification of the Polish transportation and heating sectors will have on the power market, as well as introducing the expansion of our Polish forecast to 2050.
Key messages that emerge from the analysis:
- We expect Polish power demand to grow to ~250 TWh by 2050, driven by GDP growth and strong electrification of heating and transport.
- The electrification of the transport sector has considerable flexibility potential that can drastically reduce charging costs to individual drivers and costs of the overall system. Incentivising this will be key and has further benefits (e.g. grids).
- The electrification of heating will create a need for several gigawatts of additional dispatchable capacity without providing much flexibility itself.
- Without further intervention, we expect some coal to remain in the system until 2050. However, most is replaced by low and zero carbon options.
- There is significant competition in the space for short-term flexibility; smart charging of EVs can make load shifting batteries unviable.
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