Aurora France Renewables Add-On August 2019
We are pleased to present Aurora’s France Renewables Add-On, building on our France Power Market Forecast released in March. This report presents a deep dive into renewable generation in France, encompassing policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, market forecasts, and investment case analyses.
The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities and our market insight gleaned from private and public sector players.
Highlights from this first detailed look at the role of renewables in France include:
- The French PPE plan to triple total renewable capacity by 2028 could be met by economic and regulatory setbacks. However, a €37bn investment opportunity remains realistic.
- Call for tenders will remain the key support mechanism for the growth in renewables, although Corporate PPAs could emerge as a strong contender for investors seeking higher returns.
- Despite securing a subsidy contract, renewables continue to face merchant risks which would be exacerbated by the PPE. Crucially, regional capture price differences will increase as more renewables are deployed in the system, increasing M0 deviations.
- Commodity prices and renewables deployment itself remain the key risks to the economics of renewables. Considering a list of plausible risks, we forecast a P90 average of €36.2/MWh for onshore wind and €27.7/MWh for solar over the 2019-2040 period.
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