+44 (0) 1865 952700 |
Press enquiries
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.


Home/GB Power Market Forecast – July 2020

GB Power Market Forecast – July 2020

We are pleased to present our latest GB Power Market Forecast, July 2020. This quarterly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the GB power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, production, capacity, and asset performance to 2050.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

We have moved towards a slide-based format for our reports. Please get in touch if you have further views on how we could improve the delivery of our forecast.

Key highlights in this quarter’s update include: 

  • Our Central baseload price is forecasted to rise from £32.3/MWh in 2020 to £54.9/MWh in 2025 and £64.7/MWh in the early 2030s. The trend reverses beyond this point, and baseload prices slowly start to decline, falling to £58.2/MWh in 2050
  • Until 2025, baseload prices have decreased by an annual average of £1.5/MWh (or 3%) relative to our previous forecast, to an annual average of £46.7/MWh. Changes over this period are due to lower demand and commodity prices as a consequence of COVID-19
  • Beyond 2025, the average annual baseload price remains broadly similar to our previous forecast at £61.3/MWh, as our assumptions in this period remain relatively unchanged
  • The CCC published in June 2020 its annual progress report to Parliament. The UK saw a reduction in emissions by 4% between 2018 and 2019, and the power sector continued to outperform its progress indicators. However, the UK is still off track from meeting its 4th and 5th carbon budgets
  • The UK Government published its latest guidance on carbon pricing post-Brexit. It intends to create a UK Emissions Trading Scheme from 2021 which will either be linked to the EU ETS scheme or remain as a standalone system. An ambitious carbon price consistent with “Net Zero” would be in place from 2024

The exhibits from the report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, or become a subscriber, please get in touch.

The next quarterly update of this report will be distributed in October 2020.

View Report

Our subscription services

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.

Interested? Please sign up to receive our complimentary monthly summary reports via email. Simply tick which reports you would like to receive. Please indicate your consent in the box provided and view our privacy policy.

If you would like further information on a particular subscription service or report please enter further information in the box provided.



  • Please find our privacy policy here

  • Aurora's GB power market report provides a monthly summary of key characteristics in the wholesale market, ranging from overviews of fundamental system drivers to estimates of major company performance and snapshots of individual plant operation

    Read More
  • Firm frequency response markets are expected to change significantly. Summary of the monthly auction results offer insights in price development, contracted volumes and for bidding strategies.

    Read More
  • Aurora’s scenarios for the GB Distributed and Flexible Energy service have been updated for the H1 2020 report to reflect the effects of increased ambition on decarbonisation, by replacing the previously used high decarbonisation scenarios with two Net Zero-compliant cases.

    Read More

Independent intelligence for the global energy transformation

Contact us