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Home/GB Power Market Forecast – July 2020

GB Power Market Forecast – July 2020

We are pleased to present our latest GB Power Market Forecast, July 2020. This quarterly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the GB power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, production, capacity, and asset performance to 2050.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

We have moved towards a slide-based format for our reports. Please get in touch if you have further views on how we could improve the delivery of our forecast.

Key highlights in this quarter’s update include: 

  • Our Central baseload price is forecasted to rise from £32.3/MWh in 2020 to £54.9/MWh in 2025 and £64.7/MWh in the early 2030s. The trend reverses beyond this point, and baseload prices slowly start to decline, falling to £58.2/MWh in 2050
  • Until 2025, baseload prices have decreased by an annual average of £1.5/MWh (or 3%) relative to our previous forecast, to an annual average of £46.7/MWh. Changes over this period are due to lower demand and commodity prices as a consequence of COVID-19
  • Beyond 2025, the average annual baseload price remains broadly similar to our previous forecast at £61.3/MWh, as our assumptions in this period remain relatively unchanged
  • The CCC published in June 2020 its annual progress report to Parliament. The UK saw a reduction in emissions by 4% between 2018 and 2019, and the power sector continued to outperform its progress indicators. However, the UK is still off track from meeting its 4th and 5th carbon budgets
  • The UK Government published its latest guidance on carbon pricing post-Brexit. It intends to create a UK Emissions Trading Scheme from 2021 which will either be linked to the EU ETS scheme or remain as a standalone system. An ambitious carbon price consistent with “Net Zero” would be in place from 2024

The exhibits from the report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, or become a subscriber, please get in touch.

The next quarterly update of this report will be distributed in October 2020.

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