German Power Market Forecast – July 2020
We are pleased to present our latest German Power Market Forecast for July 2020. This quarterly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the German power market and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance until 2040.
The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.
Key highlights include:
- Relative to our April 2020 forecast, baseload prices see an average annual decrease of 0.7 EUR/MWh until 2040
- Until 2025, lower gas & coal prices as a result of the COVID crisis lead to 1.4 EUR/MWh lower power prices than in our previous report
- In the period from 2026 to 2040, we expect up to 8 GW more solar PV capacity as a consequence of the 52 GW cap removal, as well as 5 GW more offshore wind capacity by 2040 due to increased government targets. This increase in renewables capacity has a price depressing effect (-0.4 EUR/MWh on average for this period), which is more pronounced during the 2030s
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