Aurora German Renewables Forecast – September 2019
We are pleased to present Aurora’s inaugural German Renewables Forecast.
This half-yearly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the German renewables market, and includes our latest outlook on electricity prices, regional capture prices, GOOs, imbalance costs, negative prices and impact on subsidies in addition to future generation mix, and capacity growth through 2040.
The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private- and public-sector players.
Highlights from this first detailed look at the role of renewables in Germany include:
- In a P90 downside scenario, capture prices for onshore wind and solar PV drop by 25% below baseload by 2040, while offshore wind capture prices only drop by 18% compared to baseload by the same date.
- Imbalance costs for onshore and offshore wind are expected to increase significantly until 2040 while solar PV increases at a less rapid pace.
- In an optimistic scenario the GOO price is expected to peak in 2030.
- The implementation of a 65% renewables target would cause solar PV capture prices to drop in average by 44% between 2030 and 2040.
Not a subscriber and want to know what to expect? View a teaser here.
If you would like to discuss the findings, or become a subscriber please get in touch.