Iberian Power Market Forecast – July 2020
We are pleased to present Aurora’s Iberian Power Market Forecast for July 2020.
Highlights from the report include:
- Since our previous forecast, baseload prices in Iberia have decreased by an average of 1.8€/MWh until 2025. Beyond that, baseload prices are similar to our previous forecast
- Similar to baseload prices, capture prices for onshore wind and solar PV register a slight dip of 1.6€/MWh relative to our previous forecast over the period to 2025
- The observed changes are due to lower commodity prices, a slight revision to demand and a reduction in French nuclear availability
- Until 2025, gas prices see an average dip of 0.7 EUR/MWh (or 4%) while carbon price falls by an average of 1.2 EUR/tCO2 (or 4.9%)
- We have increased our demand projections for 2020 (5% in Spain and 2% in Portugal) based on a faster than expected recovery in power demand from the lifting of lockdown measures. However, demand projections for 2021 has been revised downwards by 3% due to a sluggish recovery in economic growth to date
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