Aurora Ireland Flexible Energy Add-On June 2019
Aurora are pleased to present our I-SEM Flexible Energy Add-On report June 2019, which builds on our Single Electricity Market Forecast released in April. The report presents a deep dive into flexible generation in I-SEM, encompassing policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, DS3 forecasts, and investment case analyses.
The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.
Key messages from the report include:
- Increased demand contributes to a lower SNSP forecast during regulated arrangements, though volume-uncapped battery gross margins reach €225-300/kW by 2025
- Substantial additions to the eligible battery pipeline will place high pressure on the first volume-capped tender taking place this summer, with discounts of 78% possible while remaining NPV positive
- Longer-duration batteries dominate flexibility space in the 2030s, with deployment reaching 1.2GW by 2040
- Gas reciprocating engines could reach gross margins of over €120/kW in the mid-2020s, though lose out to long-duration batteries later in the horizon due to higher running costs
The underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.
If you would like to discuss the findings, or become a subscriber please get in touch.
The next update of this report will be distributed in November 2019.