Aurora Ireland Flexible Energy Add-On November 2019
We are pleased to present our I-SEM Flexible Energy Add-On November 2019, building on our Single Electricity Market Forecast released in October. This report presents a deep dive into flexible generation in I-SEM, encompassing policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, DS3 forecasts, and investment case analyses.
The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.
Key messages from the report include:
- ECP-2 batch and utilisation of existing grid connection could allow 200MW more projects on the system by 2023 and is expected to cause a breach in the DS3 budget cap in 2026
- Early termination of DS3 standard contract tariffs in 2023 or 2025 could decrease annual revenue during the regulated arrangements by, on average, €171/kW and €187/kW respectively
- Longer-duration batteries dominate flexibility space in the 2030s, with deployment reaching 1GW by 2040
- Gas reciprocating engines could reach gross margins of over €100/kW across the lifetime of the asset, with energy trading opportunities gradually increasing alongside renewables penetration
The next update of this report will be distributed in May 2020.