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Home/Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – April 2019

Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – April 2019

Aurora are pleased to present our Ireland I-SEM Forecast for April 2019. This report presents a holistic overview of the current and future state of the power markets on the island of Ireland, including deep analysis of energy and climate policies, generation technologies, demand evolution, fuel and carbon prices. Our analysis encompassing policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, forecasts for electricity prices, distributions, capacity and generation, and sensitivities.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key messages from the report include:

  • Higher carbon costs push coal to the margin in the period to 2025, with wholesale prices rising by €1.3/MWh year-on-year in that period
  • Recent renewables policy announcements in France and GB cause substantial interconnector imports beyond 2025, lowering I-SEM baseload prices to an average of €72.1/MWh
  • Capacity Remuneration Mechanism clearing prices remain above €30k/MW until the late 2030s
  • Solar PV maintains an average capture price of €69.6/MWh from 2026, while onshore wind achieves a capture price of €62.2 over the same horizon

The underlying data can be downloaded in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

The next update of this report will be distributed in November 2019.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.

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