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Home/Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – May 2020

Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – May 2020

We are pleased to present our Ireland I-SEM Forecast for April 2020. This report presents a holistic overview of the current and future state of the power markets on the island of Ireland, including deep analysis of energy and climate policies, generation technologies, demand evolution, fuel and carbon prices. Our analysis encompasses policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, forecasts for electricity prices, distributions, capacity and generation, and sensitivities.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key messages from the report include: 

  • An extension of our forecast horizon until 2050 which sees ISEM’s power sector intensity reaching 72 gCO2/kWh in 2050
  • Our Central baseload price is forecasted to rise from 39€/MWh in 2020 to 66€/MWh in 2025 and 73€/MWh in the mid-2040s. The trend reverses beyond this point, with baseload prices declining to 68€/MWh in 2050
  • Until 2025, significantly lower gas and coal prices, combined with lower total demand, places downward pressure on baseload prices. Compared to our October 2019 report, baseload prices are lower on average by 11€/MWh at an annual average of 55€/MWh during this period
  • Between 2025 – 2040, the average annual baseload price decreases slightly relative to our previous forecast to 69€/MWh, as the upward revision to offshore wind deployment and lower gas prices offsets the higher carbon prices
  • The Government published in February 2020 its final terms and conditions for the first upcoming Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) auction. Key parameters include non-indexation of strike prices, a technology preference category for solar PV and rules on negative pricing, where generators will not be compensated for all negatively priced hours

The exhibits from the report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

The next update of this report will be distributed in October 2020.

If you would like to discuss the findings or give feedback, please get in touch.

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