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Home/Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – October 2019

Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – October 2019

We are pleased to present our Ireland I-SEM Forecast for October 2019. This report presents a holistic overview of the current and future state of the power markets on the island of Ireland, including deep analysis of energy and climate policies, generation technologies, demand evolution, fuel and carbon prices. Our analysis encompasses policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, forecasts for electricity prices, distributions, capacity and generation, and sensitivities.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key messages from the report include:

  • Wholesale market prices in the short term are on average €0.2/MWh lower, due to revisions to Aurora’s fuel price projections
  • Recent updates to renewable capacities in France cause a small decrease in interconnector imports beyond 2030, increasing I-SEM baseload prices slightly to an average of €73/MWh
  • Capacity Remuneration Mechanism clearing prices remain above €30k/MW until the late 2030s
  • Solar PV maintains an average capture price of €69.6/MWh from 2026, while onshore wind achieves a capture price of €61.2 over the same horizon

The underlying data can be downloaded in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings or become a subscriber, please get in touch.

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