Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – October 2020
We are pleased to present our Ireland I-SEM Forecast for October 2020. This bi-annual update serves to refresh the analysis provided in our July 2020 forecast with the latest commodity prices, market and modelling developments. The report presents our latest outlook on prices, price distributions, capture prices, capacity and generation to 2050.
Key messages from the report include:
- Our Central baseload price is forecasted to rise from €35/MWh in 2020 to €67/MWh in 2025, and €70/MWh in 2040. The trend reverses beyond this point, with baseload prices declining to €62/MWh in 2050
- Until 2025, slightly higher carbon and coal prices, combined with higher demand between 2020-2021, places upward pressure on baseload prices. Compared to our July 2020 report, baseload prices are higher on average by €0.3/MWh at an annual average value of €52/MWh between 2020 and 2025
- Between 2025 and 2050, the average annual baseload price decreases slightly relative to our previous forecast by €3/MWh, due to the downward revision to our fundamental gas price forecast as a result of lower GDP growth assumptions
- Eirgrid and SONI announce the final results of the Renewable Electricity Support Scheme first phase, with 479 MW of onshore wind and 796 MW of Solar capacity successful in the auction
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