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Home/Australian Power Market Forecast – Q2 2019

Australian Power Market Forecast – Q2 2019

We are pleased to present our latest AUS Power Market Forecast, Q2 2019. This quarterly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the National Electricity Market in Australia, and includes our latest outlook on TWA prices, DWA prices, marginal loss factors, production, capacity, and emissions to 2040.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key developments in this quarter’s update include:

  • The inclusion of the Riverlink interconnector in Aurora’s Central Scenario, which results in a 10% (or 6 A$/MWh) higher South Australian solar DWA prices between 2022-2030 as direct access to NSW demand provides a new market for low cost SA solar
  • The refinement of Aurora’s indicative MLF forecasts by Renewable Energy Zone, to incorporate the impact of new capacity in neighbouring zones. This builds on a detailed backcasting exercise following the publication of AEMO’s 2020 marginal loss factors and was fully detailed in the specific research note that Aurora published on this topic last month
  • An overall change in average TWA prices between 2020-2030 of -1.0% to +1.3%, dependant on the State, relative to our previous forecast, and -1.0% to +2.6% over the period from 2031-2040 as slightly lower commodity prices over the short term, the inclusion of riverlink interconnector and the latest changes to MLF values shift value slightly between the key players

The exhibits from the report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.

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