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Home/Cost Potential Curves for Renewables: A Geospatial Analysis

Cost Potential Curves for Renewables: A Geospatial Analysis

We are pleased to present Aurora’s new strategic insight report ‘Cost Potential Curves for Renewables: A Geospatial Analysis’. In the report, we present our comprehensive analysis on the build-out potential for renewables in Germany. Reaching mid- and long-term climate targets requires a fundamental transformation of the German energy sector and a tremendous buildout in renewable capacity. In this report, we take a close look at the actual build-out potential for renewables in Germany, given geo-technical, economic, and socio-political constraints.

Key messages from this analysis are:

  • Germany has a geo-technical supply potential from wind and solar about three times its current power demand. However, LCOEs differ substantially between technologies and locations.
  • The economic renewable potential is limited to about 30-40% available sites due to cannibalization effects. For onshore wind, site quality will increasingly matter. However, scarce site quality does not result in a capture price floor.
  • Geo-technical supply potential is large enough to reach mid- and long-term renewables targets. If the onshore wind bottleneck persists, reaching the 65% RES target in 2030 would require a challenging 9-11 GW of solar additions per year. To achieve Net Zero in 2050, the onshore wind bottleneck could be offset by higher wind offshore and solar PV build-out.

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