Aurora’s latest Distributed and Flexible Energy Market Outlook Report for H2 2018 presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on developments in policy and technology, our integrated market outlook including revenue stream forecasts, and investment case analysis.
Key developments over the past half year:
- Near-term market and regulatory developments continue to drive uncertainty for newbuild flexible assets, with saturation of the ancillary services markets, potential reduction/removal of key embedded benefits and a reduction in target capacity for the upcoming CM auction.
- Mid-long term outlook of the market continues to favour flexible and distributed technologies, with complementary renewables growth driven by CFD support and the emergence of subsidy-free deployment.
- Regulatory reforms and the emergence of Local Flexibility Markets have resulted in a growing dichotomy between larger cost-competitive portfolios and smaller projects focused on sharper niche locational advantages.
- Multiple business models are viable today with the feasibility of different business models constantly evolving with new technological breakthroughs:
– Hybrid and Behind-the-meter business models stand as viable alternatives with markets in their current form
– Energy arbitrage/trading business models are the next frontier for flexible assets, especially with the prospect of market harmonisation with Europe
The report and accompanying data can be downloaded from the reports section of EOS.
The next update of the market outlook report will be available in Spring 2019.