Aurora’s latest Distributed and Flexible Energy Market Scenarios Report for H2 2018 presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on developments in policy and technology under various market scenarios, including revenue stream forecasts and investment case analysis.
All scenarios shown in this report apply sensitivities based on the Central assumptions published in the H2 2018 Distributed and Flexible Energy Report. They do not capture developments since October 2018 (i.e. CM suspension, changes to embedded and BTM benefits from the Targeted Charging Review consultation). Key developments will be addressed in standalone notes and that will be included in the H1 2019 Distributed and Flexible Energy Report.
Key results under the different scenarios include:
- Low Carbon scenario, with high renewables deployment and low battery costs, leads to deployment of 8.4 GW of battery storage by 2030 (+4.1 GW compared to Central Flex forecast).
- Gas is King scenario, with low gas and coal price and no new nuclear, sees increased profitability for recips, with 14.4 GW deployed by 2030. This comes at the expense of battery capacity, which is 1.8 GW lower than Central Flex in 2030.
- Battery Overbuild scenario sees 2.8 GW of additional battery capacity by 2020 compared to Central Flex forecast. In the long term the additional battery capacity causes a reduction in recip capacity of 2.8 GW.
- Post Nuclear scenario, with no new build nuclear and high renewables deployment, sees 1.7 GW extra batteries in the early 2030s. CCGTs also enter in the early 2030s to fill the supply gap for baseload generation.
- High Interconnector scenario, with 4.2 GW additional interconnector capacity by 2027, sees 2.0 GW less CCGT in 2030 due to high interconnector import load factors driven by carbon price differential; recip capacity is reduced by 1.2 GW.
The report and accompanying data can be downloaded from the reports section of EOS.
The next update of the market scenarios report will be available in Spring 2019.