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Home/Dutch Power Market Forecast – July 2018

Dutch Power Market Forecast – July 2018

Aurora’s Dutch Power Market Forecast Report presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the Dutch power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance to 2035.

The analysis is based on Aurora’s proprietary European power market model, global commodity price model and in-house market expertise. Assumptions and results are widely used within the European power market.

Key highlights of the report includes:

  • The power price is forecast to drop 2020, then to rise significantly to 2035
  • In the short-term, the main drivers are falling fuels prices, mainly for coal and gas, and renewables additions of 3GW by 2020, while new interconnectors reduce the delta to German prices. In the mid to long term, baseload exit across Europe and rising gas and CO₂ prices result in a modest increase, which is slowed down by the large-scale entry of subsidy-free wind and solar after 2032
  • We expect a mandated coal phase-out in the Netherlands, as the proposed guidelines for the Klimaatakkoord reaffirm the intention to ban coal-fired power generation by 2030
  • Aurora does not expect the implementation of a unilateral carbon price as our analysis suggests significant negative impacts on domestic generation with limited European-wide carbon emissions due to carbon leakage
  • The generation mix is fundamentally transformed to a system dominated by gas and renewables, in which the Netherlands turns from a net importer to a net exporter. This will add significant domestic generation capacity
  • We expect this transformation to offer investors/utilities significant investment opportunities into renewables (under subsidies or Corporate Power Purchase Agreements) and transactions in gas generation, as views on future developments vary in the market

The exhibits from this subscriber-only report, can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, future market developments, and have an interest in our Dutch Power Market subscription service, please click here for further information and get in touch.

Aurora’s next Power Market Roundtable will be held at the beginning of 2019, together with the next update of this report.

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