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Home/Dutch Power Market Forecast – June 2019

Dutch Power Market Forecast – June 2019

Aurora’s Dutch Power Market Forecast Report presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the Dutch power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance to 2035.

The analysis is based on Aurora’s proprietary European power market model, global commodity price model and in-house market expertise. Assumptions and results are widely used within the European power market.

Highlights of the H1 2019 report include:

  1. The final draft of the Climate Agreement (Klimaatakkoord) was published and includes measures such as a coal ban in the power sector by 2030 and a carbon price floor that rises from 12.30 EUR/tonne of CO2e in 2020 to 31.90 EUR/tonne of CO2e
  2. Power prices rise to 59 EUR/MWh in 2030 and 66 EUR/MWh in 2035, largely driven by decreasing baseload capacities as a result of the coal ban
  3. Spark spreads and clean spark spreads decrease from 7.5 EUR/MWh and -0.4 EUR/MWh in 2020 to 7 EUR/MWh and -7 EUR/MWh in 2035, respectively (assuming HHV thermal efficiency of 49.13%)
  4. Dark spreads and clean dark spreads increase from 21.7 EUR/MWh and 0.6 EUR/MWh in 2020 to 33.7 EUR/MWh and 4.3 EUR/MWh in 2029, respectively (assuming HHV thermal efficiency of 35%)
  5. The capture price for offshore wind increases from 45 EUR/MWh in 2020 to 57 EUR/MWh in 2035 (real 2018)
  6. CO2 emissions in the power sector will fall short of the target by approximately 10% in 2030

The exhibits from this subscriber-only report, can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings or become a subscriber please get in touch.

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