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Home/European Gas Markets Forecast – August 2018

European Gas Markets Forecast – August 2018

Aurora’s European Gas Markets Forecast offers in-depth insights on the future market evolutions. The analysis presented is generated using Aurora’s gas market model AER-GAS, which contains an unprecedented level of detail on the European gas infrastructure, and is integrated with our other models to capture the complexity of supply and demand.

AER-GLO provides critical inputs to AER-GAS to accurately reflect the unique position of Europe in the context of the global gas market. Our pan-European electricity dispatch model AER-ES EU produces gas-for-power demand, accounting for all the complexity of its drivers.

Together with substantial commentary on market and policy developments over the past quarter, the report presents Aurora’s outlook to 2040 for prices, supply and demand balances and LNG flows.

Key highlights include:

  • Relative to our May 2018 forecast, the German NCG price is 8.4% (or €1.5/MWh) higher in the period 2018-2022, driven by higher futures prices and 0.9% (or €0.2/MWh) higher in the period 2023-2040, driven by lower production from the Dutch Groningen field and lower Dutch demand.
  • Relative to our May 2018 forecast, an average of 8.5 bcm/year lower Dutch production between 2020 and 2040 results in higher imports to Europe from Russia (+4.2 bcm/year on average), LNG (+0.7 bcm/year on average) and North Africa (+1.0 bcm/year on average), with European demand being down 2.9 bcm/year on average across the same time period, driven by policy changes in the Dutch residential sector.
  • The loss of Groningen affects NW European countries differently, with the UK reducing summer exports to the Netherlands by 0.4 bcm/year on average between 2030 and 2040, whilst Germany increases exports to the Netherlands throughout the year by 3.5 bcm/year on average across the same time period.

The data underpinning all exhibits can be downloaded in Excel format from the report section of EOS.

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