SHARE
01865 952 700 | contact@auroraer.com
Press enquiries

Insight

Home/European Gas Market Forecast – Annual Report 2018

European Gas Market Forecast – Annual Report 2018

The European Gas Market Forecast, 2018 annual edition presents Aurora’s latest view on the state of the European gas market, and includes our updated outlook on natural gas prices, demand, and supply in Europe to 2040.

Key messages emerging from the analysis are:

  1. NBP prices are 4.6% (or €1.05/MWh) lower than our Q4 2017 forecast on average from 2018 to 2029, caused by exploration and production success leading to higher North Sea production in the short-to-medium term
  2. Production cuts at Groningen mean that the European supply-demand balance shifts materially in favour of Russian pipeline gas in particular, where the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in 2021 enables Germany to emerge as a gas trading hub in routing gas into Central and Eastern Europe, superseding the Ukrainian corridor
  3. Asia drives LNG demand growth worldwide, pulling Qatari LNG away from Europe, which is substituted by LNG from USA and Russia. As LNG terminal buildout in the US dominates that of Qatar, and terminal utilisation increases, US LNG is priced close to its long run marginal cost. This raises prices in Asia and also in Europe, where US LNG continues to successfully compete with Russian LNG towards the end of the forecast
  4. In the long run, NW European gas prices reach €29/MWh in 2040, similar to our Q4 forecast
View Report

Our subscription services

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.

Interested? Please sign up to receive our complimentary monthly summary reports via email. Simply tick which reports you would like to receive. Please indicate your consent in the box provided and view our privacy policy.

If you would like further information on a particular subscription service or report please enter further information in the box provided.

 

 

  • Please find our privacy policy here

  • This forecast presents a deep and comprehensive overview of the GB power market, including fully detailed descriptions of energy and climate policies, generation technologies, demand, and fuel prices.

    Read More
  • Natural gas markets are growing fast on a global level, with more players, increasingly complex rules and mechanisms, and rising global connectivity. In this global context, Europe sits in a unique position, with an escalating import dependency and an ever growing number of suppliers. Increasingly difficult upstream financing, highly political infrastructure developments, and the intricate evolution of gas-for-power demand will drive the future of the European gas market.

    Read More
  • This annual report – read by many of the world’s major energy companies – compiles Aurora’s long-term forecasts for oil, gas, and coal markets. Deploying our state-of-the-art in-house global general equilibrium model AER-GLO, this report:

    Read More