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Home/European Gas Markets Forecast – August 2019

European Gas Markets Forecast – August 2019

Aurora are pleased to present the latest edition of our European Gas Markets Forecast. It presents Aurora’s latest view on the state of the European gas markets, and includes our updated outlook on natural gas prices to 2040, as well as detailed analysis of market and policy developments.

Key highlights include:

  • North West European gas prices decreased by €0.7/MWh (-3.5%) between 2019 and 2025 due to full storages from a milder-than-seasonally-normal winter and a healthy supply of LNG due to the commissioning of new LNG terminals
  • Progress on new gas pipelines moved in favour of non-Russian pipelines, with progress on Nord Stream 2 continuing only with difficulties due to the Danish permitting issue, whilst Baltic Pipe received Danish regulatory approval and IGB, Balticconnector offshore and GIPL moved into the construction phase
  • On the LNG front, new planned LNG terminals in Germany and Cyrus continued to proceed with governmental and EU support, whilst Mozambique and Egypt emerged as soon-to-be LNG exporters in Africa
  • In the policy space, Ofgem stepped up RIIO-2 planning in response to the Net Zero targets, Cuadrilla received approval by the Oil and Gas Authority to begin fracking at the second well (although the latest tremors appears to have complicated matters) and the French energy regulator opened a consultation on the new transmission tariff structure.

If you would like to discuss the findings or become a subscriber, please get in touch.

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