Aurora are pleased to present the latest edition of our European Gas Markets Forecast. It presents Aurora’s latest view on the state of the European gas markets, and includes our updated outlook on natural gas prices to 2040, as well as detailed analysis of market and policy developments.
Key highlights include:
- Futures have decreased by €0.6/MWh (2.8%) on average between 2019 and 2025 due to a continuing well-supplied LNG market and high inventory levels, but the rate of decrease of futures was lower than in the past 4 quarters, suggesting the emergence of greater clarity regarding the potential for a sustained period of low prices
- On the pipeline front, Gazprom suffered a major setback as the ECJ annulled the 2016 decision to allow it to access 80% capacity on OPAL, prompting increased flows from Nord Stream 1 via the NEL route; MidCat looks unlikely due to poor economics
- On the LNG front, progress on Shannon LNG continued to face challenges due to a protest about imports of US fracking-based LNG, whilst Cyprus LNG selected a consortium for the EPC contract; PGNiG secured sales of regasified US LNG to a Ukrainian supplier and received interest from Romania
- In the policy space, record low solar and offshore wind auctions in Portugal and GB showed increased investor appetite for merchant risk; finalisation of Germany’s coal exit law was delayed; increased financial commitments were made at the UN Climate Action Summit.
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