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Home/European Gas Market Forecast – Q4 2016

European Gas Market Forecast – Q4 2016

Natural gas markets are growing fast on a global level, with more players, increasingly complex rules and mechanisms, and rising global connectivity. In this global context, Europe sits in a unique position, with an escalating import dependency and an ever growing number of suppliers. Increasingly difficult upstream financing, highly political infrastructure developments, and the intricate evolution of gas-for-power demand will drive the future of the European gas market.

From this background, our European Gas Market Forecast offers in-depth insights on the future market evolutions. The analysis presented is generated using Aurora’s gas market model AER-GAS, which contains an unprecedented level of detail on the European gas infrastructure, and is integrated with our other models to capture the complexity of supply and demand. AER-GLO provides critical inputs to AER-GAS to accurately reflect the unique position of Europe in the context of the global gas market. And our pan-European electricity dispatch model AER-ES EU produces gas-for-power demand, accounting for all the complexity of its drivers.

Key market analysis in this report include:

  • Aurora’s baseline view on prices and seasonal spreads
  • A forecast of the evolution of gas demand in Europe
  • Analyses on upstream developments within Europe as well as in key supplying regions
  • Detailed pipeline flows and LNG imports to Europe
  • Asset utilisation and its impact on security of supply

Our key modelling assumptions result from in-depth market research drawing on the unparalleled expertise of our Directors across the energy, policy, environmental and financial sectors, and are further refined through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

The analysis, which transparently lays out its underpinning mechanics, forecasts sustained low prices , with major impacts for all market players.

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