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Home/French Power Market Forecast – March 2019

French Power Market Forecast – March 2019

We are pleased to present our inaugural France Power Market Forecast, March 2019. This report presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the French power market and includes our latest outlook on prices, production, capacity, and asset performance to 2040.

Key development and results in the French power market include:

  • The Government published its draft Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Énergie (PPE) for consultation in January 2019. The document sets out France’s plans to reduce nuclear to a 50% share of total production by 2035 while tripling the installed capacity of renewables to at least 74.4 GW by 2028.
  • Meeting the Government’s PPE targets (‘Government Scenario’) would create a significant oversupply in the 2020s, increasing exports by 57.3 TWh in 2028 relative to 2018 levels and reducing the baseload electricity price to 44.3 EUR/MWh in 2028.
  • Aurora’s Central Scenario, which assumes a slower buildout of renewables relative to the PPE, sees baseload prices plateauing at an average of 47.6 EUR/MWh until 2028 before increasing to 70.7 EUR/MWh in 2040 as the decommissioning of nuclear assets accelerates and commodity prices pick up.

The exhibits from the report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.

The next report will be released in October 2019.

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