French Power Market Forecast – October 2020
This quarterly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the French power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, production, capacity, and asset performance to 2050.
Key highlights in this quarter’s update include:
- The baseload price is forecasted to rise from 35.2€/MWh in 2020 to 47.7€/MWh in 2025 and 53.5€/MWh in 2030. Beyond 2030, the baseload price reaches 65€/MWh by 2040 before to go down to 54.3€/MWh by 2050 as additional renewable capacity enters the system
- Relative to our previous update in July 2020, baseload prices have decreased by an annual average of 1.7€/MWh (or 3%) throughout the forecast horizon
- The key driver for the decrease in baseload power prices is a downward revision to our long-term gas price by an annual average 1.7€/MWh or (6%) due to lower GDP projections.
- The gas price drop also affects renewables’ capture prices which dipped by 1 – 2 €/MWh on average across the forecast horizon
- EDF raised its nuclear production forecast for 2020 to 315-325 TWh against 300 TWh initially, following better than expected outturns of the COVID-19 crisis that had forced EDF to review its reactor maintenance program earlier this year
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