Aurora are pleased to present the H1 2019 Distributed and Flexible Energy Scenarios report.
Scenarios for the H1 2019 report have been updated to reflect feedback from clients and recent market developments. While scenarios follow broadly similar themes as previous versions of this report, we now place a greater emphasis on decarbonisation, and also look at the effects of innovation in the residential flexibility market. This results in several important distinctions in market outcomes.
- Low Carbon Mix scenario, with decarbonisation targets achieved through a mix of high renewable deployment and new build nuclear, sees over 300 TWh of zero carbon generation by 2040. Long term margins are increased by 11% for batteries but gas recips see similar returns to Central due to increased carbon costs.
- Post Nuclear scenario, with decarbonisation targets achieved through extremely high renewable deployment without any new-build nuclear after Hinkley Point C, sees 10 GW of batteries by 2040 (+4 GW relative to Central). Long term margins for batteries and gas recips increase by 19% and 9% respectively due to increased price volatility.
- Smart Power scenario, with 2 GW of additional imposed battery capacity, higher penetration of smart EVs and peak demand excluding EVs reduced by 2 GW, sees lower price volatility, with margins reduced by 19% and 13% for batteries and gas recips respectively.
- Flat Gas Price scenario, with gas price held at 2019 levels as the only input change relative to central, sees baseload prices decreasing by £15/MWh in the 2030s. While gas recips benefit marginally due to lower costs and higher running hours, batteries see daily price spreads down £13/MWh and margins reduced by £8/kW/y.
- High Interconnector scenario, with 4.7 GW additional interconnector capacity, sees 10-15 TWh of CCGT output displaced by imports, driven by the carbon price differential and lower marginal cost generation in interconnected countries. Capacity Market prices are reduced £5/kW in the mid-2020s due to the extra interconnector capacity.
If you would like to discuss the findings, or become a subscriber please get in touch.