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Home/GB Power Market Forecast – January 2019

GB Power Market Forecast – January 2019

We are pleased to present our latest GB Power Market Forecast. This quarterly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the GB power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, production, capacity, and asset performance to 2040.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key developments in this quarter’s update include:

  • Overall, our Central baseload price forecast remains at similar levels over the entire forecast horizon relative to our previous forecast. The baseload price exhibits a downward trend in the short-term, reaching £56.0/MWh in 2025, before plateauing at an average of £59.4/MWh in the long-term;
  • Until 2025, the earlier entry of Nemo interconnector and Uskmouth EfW mitigates the upward pressures from a rise in coal and gas prices of £1.6/tonne and 0.2p/therm respectively;
  • From the mid-2020s, the entry of Uskmouth continues to counteract the slight increase in gas prices of 0.4p/therm;
  • Ofgem released its minded to decision and consultation report on the Targeted Charging Review (TCR). The TCR proposes reforms to network residual charges and transmission and embedded benefit which will be implemented by 2023;
  • The Capacity Market is currently suspended following a ruling from the General Court of the European which concluded that the European Commission (EC) had not sufficiently investigated whether the mechanism was in violation of EU State Aid rules. Failure to reinstate the CM would precipitate the closure of 7 GW of de-rated capacity in Winter 2019/20.

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