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Home/GB Renewables ROC forecast – H2 2019

GB Renewables ROC forecast – H2 2019

We are pleased to present Aurora’s ROC Price Forecast for H2 2019.

Highlights from this report include:

  • As of December 2019, 106m Renewables Obligation Certificates were issued in 2018/19, this is 20% less than the obligation level of 128m
  • The 2018/19 undersupply was caused by lower than expected wind load factors, and a lower number of certificates issued to fuelled assets
  • Non-payment by suppliers led to a shortfall of almost £100m of ROC funding for 2018/19, reducing the recycle value of each certificate by £0.9 in the short term
  • Lower obligation levels for future compliance periods will reduce the ROC recycle price and stabilise prices; future price uncertainty will depend on supply and demand variation
The exhibits from the report can be downloaded in PDF from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.

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