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Home/GB Renewables ROC Forecast – May 2020

GB Renewables ROC Forecast – May 2020

We are pleased to present Aurora’s ROC Price Forecast for May 2020.

Highlights from this report include:

  • As of May 2020, 102 million ROCs have been issued for the 2019/20 compliance year up to the end of February 2020. Aurora estimates that an additional 11 million will be generated in March, resulting in 113 million ROCs for the compliance year.
  • Aurora estimates that, due to higher than expected demand, the obligation level for 2019/20 will increase to 130 million. This is 4% higher than BEIS’s original estimate. The higher obligation level leads to a headroom of 15%.
  • As a result of reduced demand from COVID 19, the obligation level for 2020/21 is forecasted to decrease to 113 million ROCs, 9% lower than the BEIS estimate. The decreased obligation level is expected to lower the ROC value to £50.3/ROC.
  • Sensitivities show that in the worst case scenario, with extended periods of low demand, there could be a high oversupply of ROCs, lowering the headroom to 7% and causing the ROC value to drop to the buy out price of 50.1/ROC.
The exhibits from the report can be downloaded in PDF from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.

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