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Home/German Power Market Forecast – May 2019

German Power Market Forecast – May 2019

This quarterly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the German power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance to 2035.

Key highlights this quarter include:

  • Compared to our January 2019 report, power prices are lower with an average delta of -2 EUR/MWh between 2024 and 2035.
  • This decrease is mainly driven by higher RES capacities (especially wind) and by an increase in low-cost French imports due to lifetime extensions of nuclear power plants
  • We have incorporated the final report of the coal commission into our modelling. The initial closures are less ambitious than we forecast in January, and lignite stays longer in the system while hard coal phases out earlier.

The exhibits from the report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.

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  • Germany is likely to miss its carbon reduction target for the power sector of 207 mtCO2e per year in 2030 by approximately 60 mtCO2e if it continues on its current trajectory.

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