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Home/German Power Market Forecast – October 2018

German Power Market Forecast – October 2018

This quarterly update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the German power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance to 2035.

Key highlights this quarter include:

  • The German baseload power price is forecasted to increase from 45.0 EUR/MWh in 2018 to 51.8 EUR/MWh by 2025, then rise to 59.6 EUR/MWh in 2030 and 67.2 EUR/MWh in 2035. Compared to our July report, power prices are higher between 2018 and 2025 by 2.6 EUR/MWh on average.
  • The higher power price in the short to medium term is driven by higher carbon prices. These increases in carbon prices are caused by higher than expected scarcity, due to further long positions being built up by financial market participants and smaller industrial manufacturers starting to more actively manage their EUA purchases against the backdrop of the January 2019 launch of the Market Stability Reserve.
  • We continue to expect a gradual coal phase-out in Germany by 2040 in our Central scenario. As in our July forecast, we treat the 65% renewables target specified by the coalition as an additional scenario beside our central view, given that the exact implementation of the target is still unclear.

The exhibits from the report, can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.
The next quarterly update of this report will be distributed in January 2019.

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