Aurora’s gas system performance report provides a monthly snapshot of key operating characteristics for the European gas market. The key statistics include prices, volumes, trade, suppliers market share, indigenous production flexibility and storage provision for security of supply.
Highlights of our November 2018 report include:
- Gas prices: Prices fell by 5% month-on-month to ~€25/MWh, as the milder Asian winter continued to keep Asian demand for LNG muted, allowing redirection of cargoes to Europe. The merging of the French TRS and PEG Nord price zones on November 1st meant that the spread of all North West European prices to NBP was less than 5%.
- Consumption: Gross consumption across NW Europe was down 18% year-on-year, driven by a 3.7 bcm decrease in Germany, a 0.3 bcm decrease in GB and a 1.2 bcm decrease in consumption in France.
- Supply: LNG imports increased by 1.8 bcm year-on-year, causing LNG’s share of gas supply to increase from 4% to 10%, at the expense of storage withdrawals, which saw their share of supply decrease from 15% to 1% across the same time period. Norwegian imports declined by 0.6 bcm, whilst Russian pipeline imports only increased by 0.4 bcm year-on-year.
- Indigenous production: Dutch production continued to be down year-on-year (26%), despite the start of the new gas year on 1st October, since the production cap is lower than last year (19.6 bcm vs. 21.4 bcm). Signs of increased production due to the increase financial activity in the UK North Sea were not evident, as production was down 13% year-on-year.
- Pipeline imports: Total pipeline imports declined slightly, with a 0.1 bcm each decrease in the Polish and Nord Stream routes being compensated by a 0.2 bcm increase through the Czech route. Flows through the Austrian route increased by 0.3 bcm.
- LNG: Cheaper LNG imports caused Dutch, French and Belgian LNG imports and terminal utilisation to remain elevated for the second month in a row. LNG imports in France compensated for a combined 0.4 bcm decrease in imports through Germany and Norway, whilst LNG imports in Belgium compensated for 0.6 bcm declines in imports from the Netherlands into Belgium. Dutch LNG imports continued to compensate for declining indigenous production.
- Storage: Storage levels remained above the prevailing 5-year minimum, despite the continuing vast differences across countries.
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