We are pleased to present Aurora’s latest North West European Gas System Performance Report.
Highlights of our July 2020 report include:
- Gas prices: Average NW European gas prices in July 2020 averaged at 5.10€/MWh, sideways from the prior month average at 5.06€/MWh. Supply and demand fundamentals in North West Europe were well-balanced despite decreased Russian pipeline flows due to the maintenances
- Consumption: NW European Gas consumption in July rose by 15% year-on-year due to increased power generation demand driven by higher carbon prices, continuing to exceed the 5-year trailing maximum as seen in the earlier month. Germany led the increase, seeing a rise of 1.7 bcm across the same time period
- Supply: Storage withdrawals increased by 1.1 bcm year-on-year at the expense of both Russian and Norwegian pipeline supply, which decreased by a combined 1.0 bcm. Storage contributed 5% of supply, 3%-points higher than a year ago, whilst Russian and Norwegian pipeline lost 3%-points and 2%-points respectively in EU market share
- Indigenous production: European indigenous production remained broadly unchanged year-on-year. But GB production rose by 2% month-on-month to meet slightly higher consumption in the power sector, whilst Dutch production went down 15% across the same time period due to robust LNG send-outs from the Gate terminal
- Pipeline imports: NW European pipeline imports fell by 6% year-on-year. Norwegian flows remained largely unchanged, with a 0.1 bcm decrease across the same time period, whilst Russian flows were down 0.8 bcm due to the planned maintenances at Mallnow and Nord Stream. As a result, the Polish route and Nord Stream saw a 0.5 bcm and 0.3 bcm drop respectively, partly offset by 0.2 bcm higher flows via the Czech route
- LNG:LNG imports were 4% lower year-on-year, but 2% higher month-on-month across North West Europe to compensate for decreased Russian pipeline flows caused by the maintenances. The Netherlands saw the biggest increase (0.4 bcm higher month-on-month) with 63% utilisation rate (226% higher month-on-month). By contrast, GB imported 0.5 bcm less gas across the same time period due to higher indigenous production and Norwegian pipeline flows, leading to 41% lower terminal utilisation rate
- Storage: Net storage injections across North West Europe were down 64% year-on-year due to higher storage withdrawals than normal to mitigate the supply disruptions caused by lower Russian pipeline flows. Gas storage stocks remained above the 5-year trailing maximum
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