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Home/North West Europe Gas System Performance – September 2018

North West Europe Gas System Performance – September 2018

Aurora’s gas system performance report provides a monthly snapshot of key operating characteristics for the European gas market. The key statistics include prices, volumes, trade, suppliers market share, indigenous production flexibility and storage provision for security of supply.

Highlights of our September 2018 report include:

  1. Gas prices: Prices continued to rise, but the French TRS price approached the French PEG Nord price, ahead of formal merging of the price zones on 1st November.
  2. Consumption: Consumption decreased 8% year-on-year, driven by a decrease in non-power consumption in Germany and accentuated by declines in gas-for-power consumption in GB and France, due to a gas-to-coal switch in GB and decreased gas power plant utilisation in France.
  3. Supply: Russian imports increased their share of European supply by 12%-points year-on-year, compensating for declines of 6%-points for indigenous production, 4%-points for Norwegian imports and 2%-points for storage withdrawals year-on-year.
  4. Indigenous production: Indigenous production increased by 5% month-on-month in GB, whilst the Groningen production cap caused Dutch production to decline 8% month-on-month, ahead of the start of the new gas year on 1st October, from when an even lower cap has started to apply.
  5. Pipeline imports: Total pipeline imports increased by 17% year-on-year, driven primarily by 2 bcm higher flows through Nord Stream and 1.2 bcm higher flows through the Czech route, thereby continuing the trend seen in August and compensating for unplanned Norwegian gas field outages.
  6. LNG: Dutch LNG terminal utilisation increased almost 5-fold month-on-month, as 1.1 bcm of lower indigenous production was not fully compensated by increased imports of Russian and Norwegian gas through German, Belgian and Norwegian interconnectors, necessitating an additional 82 mcm of LNG imports into the Netherlands.
  7. Storage: A 36% decline in injections month-on-month caused inventory levels to again fall below trailing 5 year-minimums, as the official start of winter demand approached on 1st October.

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