Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) or Primary Reserve markets have undergone significant change and continue to do so:
- Increasing battery storage capacities entered into the FCR market with further projects in the pipeline
- Prices have been under pressure significantly since the beginning of 2017
- A pan-European market has been created, for which eight countries jointly procure the reserve
- Transition to weekly auctions and further reduction to daily auctions with 4-hour increment will alter the competitive balance
Two key developments will continue to impact FCR markets over the next decade:
- The current main providers of FCR are spinning thermal plants. There will be fewer of these in the future due to mandated and economic closures across Europe
- Overall CAPEX for batteries employed for FCR is projected to fall by 23% by 2025
Aurora can support you with market intelligence and forecasts for balancing markets of continental Northwest European countries. Forecasts for frequency restoration reserve, secondary control reserve and minute/tertiary control reserve can be offered on request.
Aurora’s FCR forecast service can help you to understand the investment case for batteries or revenue streams for conventional participants of the FCR market and provide quantitative answers to the following questions:
- What is the development of average yearly FCR prices to 2040?
- How is the price formed and what are the key drivers for future changes?
- What is current supply stack and how will it be transformed by further battery buildout?
- What are bidding economics of participating technologies?
- What are regulatory as well as supply and demand uncertainties and their price impact?
- What are key upside and downside risks, reflected by high & low scenarios?
Through our service you will gain access to reports and analysis, granular forecast data and interactions with Aurora team to discuss your specific questions. Detailed description of underlying assumptions, such as wholesale power, fuel and EUA prices, and technology costs deliver unmatched levels of transparency.
Our bankable third-party forecasts can support your financing and serves as industry standard to benchmark inhouse views. Major transactions of participating assets have been supported by our intelligence.
For more information about our services, you can also download our flyer about the FCR Forecast here.