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Polish Power Market Service

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Power market intelligence that drives informed strategic decisions

The Polish power market is facing fundamentally new challenges that require adequate representation in economic models:

  • The newly-introduced capacity market will have complex interactions with the energy market
  • The introduction of renewables auctions as well as the abolition of the onshore wind real estate tax open up new investment opportunities in renewables
  • Given good load factors and little cannibalisation, renewables could turn subsidy-free in Poland in the next few years

Credible long-term forecasts play a critical role in the many investment and policy decisions upcoming in the coming months and years, including bids for the capacity market and renewables auctions and the trade-off between nuclear and renewables investment as a decarbonisation strategy.

Aurora offers sophisticated modelling of the Polish power market, based on the following principles:

  • Full integration of modelling across wholesale, capacity and balancing markets and behind-the-meter business models (e.g. rooftop solar & batteries)
  • Transparent explanation of drivers of model outputs, including full range of scenarios
  • Detailed demand forecasts based on GDP, energy efficiency, EVs, etc.
  • Independent and sophisticated modelling of coal, gas and carbon prices to avoid systematic biases that are inherent in many third-party forecasts
  • Plant-level investment decisions modelled endogenously according to economic prospects
  • Dynamic dispatch of all plants on system capturing ramping costs/constraints and availability

For more information about our services, please get in touch here.

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