The Polish power market is facing fundamentally new challenges that require adequate representation in economic models:
- The newly-introduced capacity market will have complex interactions with the energy market
- The introduction of renewables auctions as well as the abolition of the onshore wind real estate tax open up new investment opportunities in renewables
- Given good load factors and little cannibalisation, renewables could turn subsidy-free in Poland in the next few years
Credible long-term forecasts play a critical role in the many investment and policy decisions upcoming in the coming months and years, including bids for the capacity market and renewables auctions and the trade-off between nuclear and renewables investment as a decarbonisation strategy.
Aurora offers sophisticated modelling of the Polish power market, based on the following principles:
- Full integration of modelling across wholesale, capacity and balancing markets and behind-the-meter business models (e.g. rooftop solar & batteries)
- Transparent explanation of drivers of model outputs, including full range of scenarios
- Detailed demand forecasts based on GDP, energy efficiency, EVs, etc.
- Independent and sophisticated modelling of coal, gas and carbon prices to avoid systematic biases that are inherent in many third-party forecasts
- Plant-level investment decisions modelled endogenously according to economic prospects
- Dynamic dispatch of all plants on system capturing ramping costs/constraints and availability
For more information about our services, please get in touch here.