Comprehensive gas market forecasts that deliver critical insights

Increasingly difficult upstream financing, highly political infrastructure developments and the intricate evolution of gas-for-power demand is driving the future of the European gas market.

Aurora’s European gas market service captures all of these critical developments, delivering a truly comprehensive basis for decision making.

Utilising the power of our gas dispatch model, we will provide you with the insight you need when faced with questions such as:

  • How will developments in upstream gas extraction across world regions, particularly surrounding sensitivities in shale gas, influence the evolution of the European gas market?
  • What does a more detailed modelling of European gas-for-power demand say about future European gas demand?
  • How will European gas prices change as the global LNG market expands and hub-based pricing becomes more prominent?

As part of Aurora’s subscription service, you will receive quarterly long-term gas market forecasts, regular strategic insight reports and monthly research notes, access to our interactive client forums and our online market data analytics platform, EOS.

How to subscribe

Aurora’s quarterly European gas market forecast provides in-depth insights into the most critical aspects of gas market and price evolution in the coming decades.

By integrating data from our gas market model with our other models, we are able to capture an intricate picture illustrating the complexity of supply and demand that accurately reflects the unique position of Europe in the context of the global gas market.

Also included are:

  • Aurora’s baseline view on prices and seasonal spreads
  • A forecast of the evolution of gas demand in Europe
  • Analyses on upstream developments within Europe as well as in key supplying regions
  • Detailed pipeline flows and LNG imports to Europe
  • Asset utilisation and its impact on security of supply

Engagement with our clients is fundamental to our approach to research.

Our series of regular interactive client forums, provide a platform where our subscribers can interact with each other and the Aurora team to discuss the key issues confronting them. These lively debates have proven invaluable to our clients and help shape Aurora’s ongoing research.

Aurora’s core group for these forums is made up of senior economists and modelers from government and Europe’s leading energy firms. Convened by invitation only, they come together to discuss and challenge Aurora’s most recent modelling.

Included in Aurora’s European gas market service is access to EOS, our online market data and analytics platform.

In addition to Aurora’s latest forecasts and research reports, EOS contains real-time and historical data on:

  • European gas market overview – Gas balance, interconnector flows, gas-for-power demand and price reporting
  • System summary – Supply analysis, demand analysis and year-on-year pipeline flows and LNG imports
  • Storage summary – Net storage supply, storage levels, cycling rates and storage margin
  • LNG summary – Import overview and supply per terminal

Go to EOS / Not a subscriber? Get in touch.

Our approach

  • Independence – Aurora is known for its independence and, where necessary, is comfortable with challenging conventional wisdom. We continue to strive for that level of independent and objective insight in all areas of our European gas market service
  • Transparency – All of the results and analyses presented in our European gas market service are refined through a detailed consultation process across Aurora’s private and public sector clients; we openly welcome debate and challenges to our methodology and are always willing to share detailed methodologies and assumptions with out clients
  • Sophistication and accuracy – Aurora European gas model incorporates every pipeline, storage facilities and LNG terminals on the system at a daily granularity to 2040. Our European gas dispatch model, Global commodity models, and market intelligence platform (EOS) underpin the European gas market service by providing internally consistent long-term forecasts and real time data, updated meticulously and held to a high standard of rigour
  • Credibility – Our results are proven by their bankability; clients trust our forecasts and strategic advice for commercial lending and investment decisions, and national policy formulation

Our clients

All of the results and analyses presented in our European gas offering are refined through a detailed consultation process across Aurora’s private and public sector clients.

Many of the world’s largest energy companies subscribe to this service, including:

  • Oil and gas producers from small independent upstream developers to supermajors
  • Midstream players including Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and other shareholders in pipeline networks, storage owners and operators and LNG market participants
  • Market regulators and policy makers such as national government bodies, including the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), formerly the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), and European institutions
  • Financial institutions and participants including investment banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, traders, brokers, and long-term contract portfolio managers

Among other things, our clients typically use this service to:

  • Keep up to date with and anticipate changes in the demand and supply balance in gas markets
  • Understand the expected utilisations and value of particular assets
  • Validate internal forecasts and value existing portfolios as part of their business cycle

Don’t get left behind. To get the latest market intelligence at your fingertips, subscribe today

How to subscribe?

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.