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German power market service

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Power market intelligence that drives informed strategic decisions

The German power market is facing a period of tremendous change, driven by nuclear exit, yet uncertain lignite and coal face-out, increasing problems to incorporate a rising share of renewables and rapid development of distributed technologies. Our clients therefore look to us for insights, forecasts and analysis to help them make sense of their unstable environment.

Our insights into the industry-shaping issues, featured regularly in the press, are grounded in economic modelling of the German wholesale power market, balancing, and other markets.

These help our clients answer questions such as:

  • How will Germany’s Energiewende, and the decisions to maintain an energy-only market, impact system performance and asset values in years to come?
  • What role will distributed and flexible technologies play in the German power market over the next decade?
  • What would be the implications of a split of the German power market zone? What options does the German government have to meet its emissions targets?
  • What assets are still worthwhile investment targets despite depressed wholesale prices?

Unlike other analytics providers, our German power service uses in-house modelling and expertise on global commodities, European gas markets and the power markets of other European countries, to provide results that accurately reflect market realities.

By subscribing to Aurora’s German power market service, you receive best-in-class quarterly long-term power market forecasts, regular strategic insight reports and monthly research notes, attendance at interactive client forums, and access to our online market data analytics platform EOS.

How to subscribe

Aurora’s quarterly German power market forecast provides a deep and comprehensive overview of the German power market.

In addition, briefing notes on policy and technology developments are provided, to explain how our assumptions evolve alongside significant shifts in both the German and European market environments.

Using our in-house dynamic dispatch model, we forecast electricity prices, spreads, future generation mix, capacity growth, and price dispersion.

Also included are:

  • “Aurora Low” and “Aurora High” price scenarios, informed by in-house forecasts of P10/P90 commodity prices
  • The impact of increased wind penetration in the German market on wind farm capture prices
  • A regular overview and analysis of German emissions targets, and current emissions trajectory
  • A forecast of financial and operational performance of conventional generating assets
  • Quarterly sensitivity analysis of central results, based on alternate outcomes surrounding renewable capacity build out, commodity prices, and demand

Engagement with clients is a key element of Aurora’s market intelligence services.

Our interactive client forums offer the opportunity for our subscribers to interact with one another and the Aurora team to discuss the key issues confronting them, and shape Aurora’s ongoing research.

The quality of debate and insight generated at these forums has proven a valuable source of information for many of our clients.

Aurora’s core group – convened by invitation only – comprises senior strategists, economists and modellers from Europe’s leading energy firms and government, and gathers to discuss and challenge Aurora’s most recent analytical work on hot topics of the industry.

Included in Aurora’s German power market service is access to EOS, our online data analytics platform.

In addition to forecasts and research reports, EOS contains real-time and historical data on:

  • German system performance – System capacity and generation output, marginal generation, interconnector flows, system prices and market imbalance
  • Individual power plants – Capacity and output, load factors, utilisation, capture prices, inframarginal rents and other performance data
  • Company performance – Market share, costs, revenues and profits
  • Commodity Data – Oil, gas, coal and CO2 prices

Go to EOS / Not a subscriber? Get in touch.

Our approach

  • Independence – Aurora is known for its independence and, where necessary, is comfortable with challenging conventional wisdom. We continue to strive for that level of independent and objective insight in all areas of our German power market service
  • Transparency – All of the results and analyses presented in our German power market service are refined through a detailed consultation process across Aurora’s private and public sector clients; we openly welcome debate and challenges to our methodology and are always willing to share detailed methodologies and assumptions with out clients
  • Sophistication and accuracy – Aurora models the operational and financial performance of every asset on the system at a half hourly granularity to 2030. Our electricity model, commodity models, and market intelligence platform (EOS) underpin the German power market service by providing internally consistent long-term forecasts and real time data, updated meticulously and held to a high standard of rigour
  • Credibility – Our results are proven by their bankability; clients trust our forecasts and strategic advice for commercial lending and investment decisions, and national policy formulation

Our clients

The unique qualities listed above have made Aurora’s German power market service an industry standard, with most major participants in the German power market counted as subscribers. They include:

  • Major utilities, municipal utilities (Stadtwerke), power generators and large consumers
  • Market regulators and policy makers both the German federal government and European institutions
  • Financial institutions including lenders, investment banks and funds

Among other things, our clients typically use this service to:

  • Anticipate changes in policy, technology and commodity markets and assess their effects
  • Keep up to date with medium-term and long-term forecasts for power, coal, oil, gas and carbon sectors
  • Validate internal forecasts and value existing portfolios as part of their business cycle

Don’t get left behind. To get the latest market intelligence at your fingertips, subscribe today

Our subscription services

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.

Interested? Please sign up to receive our complimentary monthly summary reports via email. Simply tick which reports you would like to receive.

If you would like further information on a particular subscription service or report please enter further information in the box provided.

Sophisticated economic modelling with deep knowledge of policy and practice of energy markets