This report – read by many of the world’s major energy companies – compiles Aurora’s long-term forecasts for oil, gas, coal and carbon markets, deploying our state-of-the-art in-house global general equilibrium model.

Our global energy markets forecast

  • Presents an internally consistent, long-term view on fuel prices, production, and consumption by major countries and regions
  • Identifies key areas of long-term uncertainty in global energy market fundamentals
  • Provides central, high, low, and P10/P90 price sensitivity analyses, based on historical variation in key sources of uncertainty

Global general equilibrium model

  • General equilibrium structure enforces market clearance across all markets, ensuring internal consistency of results
  • Covers all economic activity in the world economy, aggregated into 12 collectively exhaustive categories of goods, and 23 countries/regions
  • Takes into account interactions between different markets, and substitution mechanisms between coal, oil, gas, and all other goods

Dynamic resource extraction module

  • Provides realistic fuel extraction modelling through dynamic forward-looking profit maximisation
  • Accounts for all existing and estimated oil, gas, and coal resources in the world, split into 11 different subcategories of fuels – five for oil, four for gas, and two for coal
  • Differentiates between extraction with existing capacity and exploiting additional resources. The former depends on current fuel price and marginal extraction cost, while the latter involves investment in extraction capacity if the project is found viable given the levelised cost of extraction and expected future fuel prices

Using a blend of market intelligence and insight, our forecasts give you the foresight, independence and transparency you need to make informed critical commercial decisions.

We offer our global energy markets forecast as a stand-alone product or as an integral component of our comprehensive power market services.

How to subscribe

Our approach

  • Independence – Aurora is known for its independence and where necessary, is comfortable with challenging conventional wisdom. At the beginning of 2014, we forecasted oil prices of $75-80/bbl; significantly lower than consensus at the time. We continue to strive for that level of independent and objective insight with our global energy markets forecast
  • Transparency – All of the results and analyses presented in our global energy market forecast are refined through a detailed consultation process across Aurora’s private and public sector clients; we openly welcome debate and challenges to our methodology and are always willing to share detailed methodologies and assumptions with our clients
  • Credibility – Our forecasts are proven by their bankability; clients trust our forecasts and strategic advice for commercial lending and investment decisions, and national policy formulation

Our Clients

The unique qualities listed above have made Aurora’s global energy market forecast an industry standard, with most major participants in the European energy market counted as subscribers. They include:

  • Major energy companies including oil and gas majors, national oil and gas companies, power generators and utilities, project developers, and equipment suppliers
  • Market regulators and policy makers including the European Commission, Great Britain’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the British regulator Ofgem, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), and the European Climate Foundation
  • Financial institutions including lenders, investors, and traders from investment banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds

Among other things, our clients typically use this service to:

  • Keep up to date with medium-term and long-term forecasts for oil, gas, coal and carbon sectors
  • Understand their long-term commodity exposures, anticipate changes in commodity markets and assess their effects
  • Inform long-term investment decisions in generation and infrastructure assets across a wide range of technologies including CCGT, solar and wind
  • Validate internal forecasts and value existing portfolios as part of their business cycle

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How to subscribe?

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.