Aurora’s Great Britain mid-term power price forecast supports selling, purchasing and hedging decisions
Based on our sophisticated Great Britain power market modelling suite, we offer half-hourly power price forecasts covering the liquid forward curve period.
This is what it includes:
- Forecast: Power price, spark spread, clean spark spread, dark spread and clean dark spread
- Period: One month to three years ahead
- Granularity: Half-hourly prices and spreads
- Price distribution: Average expected price, P50 and P90 uncertainty bands and distribution
- Updates: Weekly
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Applying superior methodology
Our mid-term forecast is produced by our dedicated power market model, which combines a fundamental power dispatch with advanced econometric analysis to resemble actual pricing pattern very closely.
We apply a stochastic approach for demand, intermittent renewables generation, plant availability and outages as well as commodity prices to reflect the inherent volatility.
The Great Britain power market model is embedded in our more extensive European power market model and generates endogenous price-dependent interconnector flows that are increasingly influencing Great Britain power prices.
Our proprietary modelling methodology performs extremely well in back-casting and against actual price outturn.
Aurora’s mid-term power price forecast will be of high value to a wide range of market participants:
- Power generators: Inform their power marketing and hedging decisions
- Power suppliers: Inform their power procurement and product pricing decisions
- Large power consumers: Inform their power procurement and hedging decisions
- Renewable marketers: Inform their output marketing and hedging decisions
- Power traders: Inform their trading decisions
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