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Great Britain power market service

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Power market intelligence that drives informed strategic decisions

The power market in Great Britain faces a period of enormous change and uncertainty, driven by rapid technology and policy evolution.

Aurora’s Great Britain power market service gives you the forecasts, strategic insights, policy analysis and market data you need to navigate this ever-changing environment.

Whether an asset owner, developer, investor, or involved in policymaking, subscribing to our Great Britain power market service will give you the intelligence you need to answer pressing questions such as:

  • What are the impacts of increasing distributed and flexible technologies on the market?
  • How will the push toward further interconnection impact both wholesale and capacity market prices?
  • What are the prospects for wind and solar power cannibalisation as deployment increases?

Using a combination of market intelligence and insight, our forecasts will give you the understanding and transparency you need to make informed commercial decisions.

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.

How to subscribe

Aurora’s quarterly Great Britain power market forecast delivers a deep and comprehensive overview of the Britain’s power market.

Using our in-house dynamic dispatch model, we forecast electricity prices, spreads, capture prices, future generation mix, and price dispersion, all at half hour granularity.

Also included are:

  • Detailed descriptions of energy and climate policies, technological development, demand and fuel prices
  • Forecast of Capacity Market outcomes and their impact on wholesale electricity prices
  • Impact of increasing renewables as well as distributed and flexible technologies on the power market
  • Wind and solar capture prices that reflect increasing penetration
  • Forecasts of financial and operational performance of every conventional generating asset on the system
  • “Aurora Low” and “Aurora High” scenarios, informed by in-house forecasts of P10/P90 commodity prices, demand projections and renewables penetrations
  • Quarterly analysis of alternate scenarios, with key implications for wholesale electricity prices, the composition of new capacity, and climate targets

A vital component of our research is engagement with our clients.

Our regular interactive client forums enable subscribers to access Aurora’s expertise, interact with each other and our team to discuss the key issues confronting them, and shape our ongoing research.

The quality of debate and insight generated at these forums has proven a valuable source of information for many of our clients.

Aurora’s core group – convened by invitation only – comprises senior strategists, economists and modelers from Europe’s leading energy firms and government, and gathers to discuss and challenge Aurora’s most recent analytical work on hot topics of the industry.

Included in Aurora’s Great Britain power market service is access to EOS, our online market data and analytics platform.

In addition to Aurora’s latest forecasts and research reports, EOS contains real-time and historical data on:

  • System performance – System capacity and generation output, marginal generation, interconnector flows, prices and other system data
  • Individual power plants – Capacity and output, load factors, utilisation, capture prices and other performance data
  • Company performance – Market share, costs, revenues and profits
  • Commodity Data – Oil, gas, coal and CO2 prices

Go to EOS / Not a subscriber? Get in touch.

Our approach

  • Independence – Aurora is known for its independence and, where necessary, is comfortable with challenging conventional wisdom. In 2014 we forecasted flat base-load power prices; a significantly out of consensus idea at the time, but has since been proven accurate. We continue to strive for that level of independent and objective insight in all areas of our Great Britain power market service
  • Transparency – All of the results and analyses presented in our Great Britain power market service are refined through a detailed consultation process across Aurora’s private and public sector clients; we openly welcome debate and challenges to our methodology and are always willing to share detailed methodologies and assumptions with out clients
  • Sophistication and accuracy – Aurora models the operational and financial performance of every asset on the system at a half hourly granularity to 2040, with complete internal consistency across energy, capacity, balancing and other markets. Our electricity model, commodity models, and market intelligence platform (EOS) underpin the Great Britain power market service by providing internally consistent long-term forecasts and real time data, updated meticulously and held to a high standard of rigour
  • Credibility – Our results are proven by their bankability; clients trust our forecasts and strategic advice for commercial lending and investment decisions, and national policy formulation

Our clients

The unique qualities listed above have made Aurora’s Great Britain power market service an industry standard, with most major participants in the British power market counted as subscribers. They include:

  • Power generators, project developers, and equipment suppliers from small independents to large utilities – currently over 90% of the transmission-connected TWh in the market
  • Market regulators and policy makers including the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), Ofgem, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) and the National Infrastructure Commission
  • Financial institutions including lenders, investors, and traders from investment banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds

Among other things, our clients typically use this service to:

  • Inform long-term investment decisions in generation and infrastructure assets across a wide range of technologies including CCGT, OCGT, peakers, batteries, solar and wind
  • Anticipate changes in policy, technology and commodity markets and assess their effects
  • Keep up to date with medium-term and long-term forecasts for power, coal, oil, gas and carbon sectors
  • Validate internal forecasts and value existing portfolios as part of their business cycle

Don’t get left behind. To get the latest market intelligence at your fingertips, subscribe today

Our subscription services

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.

Interested? Please sign up to receive our complimentary monthly summary reports via email. Simply tick which reports you would like to receive.

If you would like further information on a particular subscription service or report please enter further information in the box provided.

Sophisticated economic modelling with deep knowledge of policy and practice of energy markets