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German Renewables Service

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Intelligence to unlock the potential of subsidy-free renewables in Germany

The rate of growth in renewables is radically transforming the power system in Germany, as well as many other countries across the globe. Both the Netherlands and Germany have seen subsidy-free bids into offshore wind auctions and announcement of PV installations outside the EEG subsidy regime. Sustained technology cost declines, rising power prices and competition have now allowed the economics of renewables to work without government support. This challenges today’s investment strategy, financing and commercialisation of wind and solar.

Aurora is at the forefront in modelling and forecasting this subsidy-free renewables future and all relevant revenue and cost streams. Our analytical forecasting and modelling are combined with longstanding significant industry experience and insights to provide quantitative answers to the key questions required for the transition to merchant renewables. Our Renewables Service has four main use cases:

  1. Form your business case: How will capacities, market prices and cost develop?
    • How big is the investment opportunity? How much wind and solar will we see outside the EEG? What is the potential of assets after the subsidy period?
    • How does cannibalisation affect capture prices and how will they develop regionally?
    • What are price drivers for Guarantees of Origin (HKNs)?
    • How much will CAPEX and O&M cost decline?
    • How will imbalance cost develop as more renewables enter the market?
  2. Benchmark your commercialisation: How to structure and price green PPAs?
    • How to derive a fair value of PPAs taking intermittency and market risk into account?
    • What are PPA price benchmarks for greenfield and post-subsidy assets?
    • How much green power can be absorbed by off-takers and what is the ideal counterparty for your PPA?
  3. Secure project finance: How to quantify market risks to secure financing?
    • How much debt can merchant projects sustain and at what rates?
    • What are possible downside risks for capture prices?
    • What price curves should be used for financing, and how low can capture prices go if key risks materialise?
  4. Strategic Insights: What other opportunities become investible and when?
    • What are the economics of co-located batteries and hydrogen production?
    • What is the optimal business models for post-EEG Ü20 wind farms? Repowering or short-term PPAs?

Clients include: developers and investors of renewable projects, PPA off-takers, major utilities and conventional generators, policy makers and financial institutions.

As part of Aurora’s subscription service you will gain access to bankable renewable forecast reports and analysis, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums, interaction with the Aurora team via bilateral workshops and ongoing analyst support. For more information about our services, please follow the link below. You can also download our flyer about the German Renewables Service here.

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